Who Will Emerge From The ATP’s Next Gen Ranks In 2021?
For tennis fans, a new year means the start of yet another season of ATP tennis, albeit necessarily modified due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The first tournaments of January have already gone underway, with two young players, Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz and the United States’ Sebastian Korda, facing off in the finals of Delray Beach, Hurkacz taking home the victory. Looming large is the delayed Australian Open- where officials seem to be pressing ahead despite some positive tests among players in the lead up to the start of play.
In recent years, the ATP has been trying to draw greater attention to its crop of younger players, as its greatest stars- Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic, all enter either their mid-thirties or, in Federer’s case, celebrate their fortieth birthday later this year. To this end, the ATP inaugurated the Next Gen end of year tournament, where its top eight ranked players under twenty-one had a chance to showcase their talents head to head. This new tournament may not have caused the rise of a promising new tennis crop, but it certainly has correlated with a wave of exciting new players.
These young guns of the tour have come with a variety of playing styles, from the herky-jerky persistence of Daniil Medvedev to the efficient aggression of Stefanos Tsitsipas, to the left-handed flair of Denis Shapovalov, and more. Although none of this crop have won a Grand Slam title yet, they have proven that they can contend on tennis’ biggest stages- with Medvedev pushing Nadal to five sets at the 2019 U.S. Open and winning the 2020 ATP Finals.
One of the biggest upcoming questions for the tour will be- can any of the recent Next Gen graduates finally break through and win a Slam? Medvedev and fellow Next Gen alum Sasha Zverev have featured in the last two U.S. Open finals, both losing in five sets. Tsitsipas has featured in the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2019 and the French Open in 2020, but he too is awaiting his first title on the biggest stage.
Or, perhaps, one of the incredibly talented (if slightly more inconsistent) Canadian duo of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov will step up to the next level? Both have shown that they are as talented as any player on tour, but now have to fully capitalize on their immense on court gifts. Auger Aliassime has repeatedly suffered injuries that have hampered what would otherwise have been a steady rise up the rankings, and his fourth round drubbing at the hands of Dominic Thiem showed just how far he has to go before he can truly contend for slams.
Shapovalov, on the other hand, arguably has the most pure skill in his game of any of the Next Gen players, with a silky smooth all around game highlighted by his lefty one handed backhand. But he can be error-prone, and can have mental lapses that seem to last through multiple matches or tournaments. He did manage to climb the rankings last year, ending 2020 at of 12th in the world after reaching a career high of 10th in the fall. His key test for 2021 will be if he can maintain consistent focus throughout the year, particularly at the larger events.
Whether the Next Gen can take home a Grand Slam title for the first time will be the principal storyline surrounding young players this season without a doubt, however it will not be the only one. All of the aforementioned players have now aged out of being in the running for the 2021 ATP Next Gen race. This means that an entirely new crop of teenagers will be competing to establish their footprint on the ATP Tour.
Sebastian Korda is already off to a strong start, making the final in Delray Beach. It will be fascinating to follow his career as it unfolds, as he is the rare second generation tennis pro (son of Petr Korda, who won the Australian Open in 1998). Another intriguing storyline will be the continued rise of Carlos Alcaraz, at seventeen one of the youngest and most promising of the Next Gens.
But of the greatest interest of all to this author personally will be the progress of those Next Gens who play with a one handed backhand, as it is easily this author’s preferred aesthetic form of the backhand shot, having written about it previously. Eighteen year old American Toby Alex Kodat is a new face who shows promise with the one hander, as is Ukrainian Eric Vanshelboim.
But most promising of the one handed next Gens is surely Lorenzo Musetti of Italy. First establishing himself in the junior ranks by winning the 2019 Australian Open, Musetti showed the first signs of a breakout on the men’s tour in 2020. Playing on his home soil in the Rome Masters 1000 tournament, Musetti recorded back to back victories over former top 10 players Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori. His 2021 has gotten off to a disappointing start, as he failed to qualify for the Australian Open, but the year will be long and hopefully he can rally to achieve the greater levels he is clearly capable of reaching.
Men’s tennnis has had the same stars at the top of it for nearly fifteen years now- Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and for a time Andy Murray. Even though he is slightly older than the other recent Next Gens, Dominic Thiem’s victory at the Australian Open felt like a breath of fresh air and, possibly, an opening of the floodgates to a new generation of players. Djokovic and Nadal are still clearly at a championship level (Federer is more of a question mark with his recent injuries), and will likely still be around for a long time. But in 2021, the new generation promises to shake up the top ranks of the sport, challenging their reign more than ever.
