Who Are the Dangerous Underdogs In The NHL’s Postseason Format? Part 1.
The COVID-19 delayed NHL playoffs are slowly but surely starting to take shape. Yesterday, the NHL Players Association’s Executive Committee deliberated on whether or not to accept or reject the format proposed by the league for holding a modified Stanley Cup playoffs format, and the expectation is they will be approved.
These playoffs will unfold with significant differences to the usual way that the Stanley Cup playoffs are played. Instead of the usual 16 teams participating, the field of teams competing will be expanded to 24 teams. The top four teams in each of the Western and Eastern conferences will essentially get a bye, advancing directly into the second round. In the Eastern conference, this would be the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals, and in the West it would be the St. Louis Blues, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars.
That leaves sixteen teams that will then compete in a round robin format to earn the right to advance and face one of the top four seeds. This will include four teams that would not have made the playoffs as things currently stand- in the East, these are the Florida Panthers, New York Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and New York Islanders. In the Western Conference, it would be the Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, Arizona Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks.
If each of the “bonus eight” wins out from the round robin matchup, they would then face one of the top four seeeds. None of the top four should be confident about facing opponents that on paper seem like lesser competition than normal for a playoff series. Each of these underdog teams boast formidable players and could make any postseason series with the top seeds a dogfight. But which one are the top seeds hoping to see the least in a playoff series?
The most obvious candidate in the East would be the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets are fresh off a 2019 playoffs where they produced one of the most stunning and memorable upsets in recent NHL history. Having made the playoffs by only one point, they faced a Tampa Bay Lightning team that had just turned in one of the most dominant regular seasons in modern history, winning a record 128 points. Undeterred, the Blue Jackets came in and swept the Lightning in four games, buoyed by star players like forward Artemi Panarin and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky.
The Jackets’ Stanley Cup quest ultimately fell short, and few expected them to be a factor in the playoff race again this year, as Panarin, Bobrovsky and other key players departed in free agency (ironically both of those two’s new teams, the Rangers and Panthers, fall into the same “bonus playoff team” category as the Jackets). Not only that, but many of the team’s remaining key players were wracked by injury, such as top defenseman Seth Jones and forward Cam Atkinson, who had led the team with 41 goals in 2018–19. All in all, the Blue Jackets led the NHL by far in man games lost to injury during the 2019–20 regular season.
And yet, Columbus surprised everyone by staying in the hunt, and if the season had played out without COVID-19, they would have had a strong chance to make it into the tournament the usual way. They key to their success has been two-fold. The first was the defensive system instilled by head coach John Tortorella. Tortorella’s fiery, combative personality makes him one of the more controversial NHL head coaches, but he gets results on the ice.
Arriving in Columbus in 2015, he revamped the Jackets’ approach to defense by emphasizing quicker transitions out of the defensive zone and fast puck movement, allowing the team to shut down opposing offenses and turn things around quickly into their own offense. Even as top defenders like Jones miss significant time due to injury, Tortorella instills every player with this philosophy, enabling the Blue Jackets to remain one of the NHL’s best defensive teams this year.
The other key has been the team’s nickname remaining strong even with Bobrovsky’s departure. In the early going of the season Bobrovsky’s former backup, Joonas Korpisalo, admirably filled the void left by the Russian’s departure, earning an All Star spot before becoming one of the team’s many injury casualties. Into his place stepped Latvian rookie Elvis Merzlikins, who in limited action put up even better numbers- averaging a .923 save percentage and an average of 2.35 goals against.
Even in a year with a number of strong rookie goaltenders, Merzlikins stands out from the pack. And although the favorites for the Calder Trophy (the NHL’s rookie of the year award) are defensemen Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche and Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks, Merzlikins has done enough to be in consideration for the award. The Blue Jackets have now firmly established a tradition of developing successful goalies, thanks to the strong scouting and coaching department built by General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen.
In an NHL playoff series, a hot goaltender can often be the difference maker, and the Blue Jackets have two such netminders who have demonstrated the capacity to shut down the opposing team in a pinch. That and their defense can give even the most high-powered opposing offense fits, as the Tampa Bay Lightning found out last year.
Most importantly of all, the time off due to the pandemic may actually play to the Jackets’ advantage. Had the playoffs started on time, Seth Jones and other key contributors would have not been available, but the layoff will give them time to recover from their injuries and be able to take the ice. The NHL playoff format will be unconventional, but will allow for the possibility of unprecendented David over Goliath upsets. If the Blue Jackets get past the round robin, the top teams in the East should be ready for an incredibly tough series.
