The Nationals’ Record Deal For Stephen Strasburg Will Be Worth It.
On December 9, 2019, a free agent starting pitcher shattered the record for the amount of money received when signing a new contract. This pitcher is a right-handed starter who went first overall in the draft and pitched in the World Series this past year. However, the record was not set by Gerrit Cole, whose new contract has been universally predicted to break both the record for overall dollars received by a pitcher in free agency (set by David Price when he signed with the Boston Red Sox in 2015) and the record for dollars per year, or average annual value (set by Zack Greinke when he signed with the Diamondbacks that same year). Instead, it was Stephen Strasburg, whose Washington Nationals bested Cole’s soon to be former team, the Houston Astros, in this year’s World Series, who set the record (though Cole will likely break it soon).
Strasburg, who like Cole is represented by super-agent Scott Boras, was enticed by the Nationals to stay with the club thanks to an offer sheet of seven years and $245 million, an amount that only days before was believed to be the opening offer for Cole. Although Nationals fans will doubtless be thrilled to see their World Series MVP staying with the club for what will now likely be the duration of his career, some of them may be a little queasy when looking at how much it cost their team to retain his services. But recent history shows that they shouldn’t have much cause for concern.
When signing any athlete to a long-term contract, let alone a baseball pitcher, the biggest concern is always whether they provide the most value at the front end of the deal, and then don’t decline too severely at the back end of the deal so as to have not made the production earlier on in the contract worthwhile. Retaining Strasburg will certainly provide huge amounts of value to the Nationals on the front end of the deal, both on and off the field. With the Nationals’ other star free agent, Anthony Rendon, looking increasingly likely to sign elsewhere, retaining Strasburg will likely be the difference-maker for the Nationals’ hopes to defend their World Series title in the postseason next October.
Even one postseason trip earned because of Strasburg would substantially boost a team’s annual revenue, to say nothing of additional profits from merchandise such as jerseys. When Strasburg’s teammate Bryce Harper left Washington to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2019, he set immediate records for number of jerseys sold for his team, and Strasburg jersey sales could similary go up next year, as the combination of Nationals fan interest and his profile as World Series MVP will never be higher.
On the other side of the scale, the team letting both Rendon and Strasburg walk away after winning a World Series would have put a severe damper on fan interest and goodwill- Strasburg staying raises the ceiling for possible revenue, while both leaving would have immediately lowered the floor and possibly damaged the team’s brand with its fanbase in the long term as well. It may surprise some now, but the Miami Marlins were once an above average draw compared to the rest of the National League (despite playing in an outdated stadium designed primarily for football), until owner Wayne Huzienga dismantled the squad that won the 1997 World Series in an infamous “fire sale,” and subsequent owner Jeffrey Loria did the same for the team that won the Series again in 2003.
The Marlins’ fanbase has never recovered, and in 2019 the team ranked 30th out of 30 teams in attendance, and rank last in combined social media following as well. The Nationals, still relatively new to the Washington D.C. market, are currently middle of the pack in attendance and in the bottom third in social media following as well as television ratings. A successful season in 2020 could be the key to boosting the franchise’s numbers in every category to unprecedented levels and establishing the Nationals brand as one of baseball’s best, or it could plunge them even further down each list, never to recover. Retaining Strasburg, perhaps even more than Rendon, is key to making sure the former scenario turns out to be the case.
Though the Lerner family, who own the Nationals, are paying a steep price now, they could reap lucrative rewards from this decision in the future; when the Giants won their first World Series title in San Francisco in 2010, the franchise was valued at just under $500 million. After a decade where the team retained most of the key players from that championship run and won two more titles, firmly establishing themselves as one of MLB’s marquee franchises, the team’s value currently sits at $3 billion.
Of course, all of this potential financial upside depends on Strasburg performing on the field. Strasburg does have some red flags in his profile- the average velocity in his fastball has steadily declined, going from almost 98 MPH in his rookie season to just under 94 MPH in 2019. However, Strasburg’s track record also shows that he is more than capable of evolving as a pitcher to compensate for this, relying on control and trickery with his secondary pitches instead of pure heat. Last year, he struck out 10.81 batters per nine innings, his best number since 2016. Strasburg may not be an elite player at thirty-eight, when his new contract is up, but even if he remains elite until around age thirty-four or thirty-five, it will be well worth it for the Nationals.
If baseball players were stocks, one would have to say that Stephen Strasburg (and Gerrit Cole, who will likely break Strasburg’s contract record in the coming days) is as much of a blue chip as it gets. Too many sports franchises and fanbases suffer under owners who prioritize the guaranteed profits that come only investing the minimum in their team, even though the alternative is not only much more rewarding to the fans, but in the long term is potentially even more financially lucrative to the owners. The few remaining Miami Marlins fans can only look on enviously at what Nationals ownership has done by retaining one of the most important players on their championship team, and can only hope that one day, if they ever do contend for a World Series again, that whoever owns the team then will take a page out of the Nationals’ book.
