New Decade, New Guard: Will Tennis’ New Decade Finally See A Change At The Top?
For the past thirteen years, the tennis world has had a strictly defined hierarchy at the top of the sport. For all of that time, three players have stood head and shoulders above the rest, with the only question being the order in which the three would end the year at the top of the rankings, or which Grand Slam tournaments they each would win every year. Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic closed out the last decade at the pinnacle of the sport, and they close this one out as well. But nothing can ever last forever, and the next decade may finally see the long-heralded breakthrough of young stars who can challenge, or even displace, the Big 3.
The supposed wait for tennis’ “Next Generation” of superstars to take their place alongside Federer, Nadal and Djokovic (as well as Andy Murray) has by now lasted nearly as long as their very reign atop the sport. As far back as 2009, Juan Martin Del Potro looked certain to be a challenger, as he defeated Nadal and Federer back to back to win the U.S. Open title. But not long thereafter, Del Potro lost a year to a wrist injury, and although he has had some good results, he never reached the pinnacle of the sport that he had the promise of attaining.
Del Potro’s path set the template for a decade of youngsters who hoped to reach the top of the sport- often showing promise, even at the highest level of the Grand Slams, but never quite making it to the rarefied air of the Big 3. Grigor Dimitrov was once hailed as “baby Federer” for his elegant playing style featuring a Federer-esque one handed backhand, but to this date has never reached a Grand Slam final. Like Del Potro, Marin Cilic showed that he could beat the very best on the biggest stages; in 2014 he won the U.S. Open, defeating Federer in straight sets on route. But Cilic too has been set back by injuries, and as of the end of 2019 has fallen to no.39 in the ATP rankings. And Nick Kyrgios might have more talent than all of them, but his party boy lifestyle and inconsistent motivation level on court have made him simultaneously one of the most exciting and frustrating players on the tour. Indeed, the player who most frequently could defeat the Big 3 in slams, Stan Wawrinka, was in fact older than Nadal and Djokovic!
2019, however, started to see the rise to the top of the tour of players born in the late 1990s, and it will be these players who will make a run at displacing the Big 3 in 2020. The year was bookended by strong performances from Greek phenom Stefanos Tsitsipas, who began by upsetting Roger Federer at the Australian Open, where Federer was the defending champion. At the end of the year he defeated Federer again in the semifinals of the year end ATP Tour Finals, after which he triumphed in an epic match over Dominic Thiem (himself a candidate to break through to the top of the sport in 2020, albeit at 26 a few years older than Tsitsipas and his contemporaries). Victory at the ATP Tour Finals in 2007 was the prelude to a 20-year old Djokovic breaking through and winning his first Grand Slam at the 2008 Australian Open, and Tsitsipas following that path would be far from surprising.
One of the most memorable matches of 2019 featured a young player who is as good a bet as any from the new generation to consistently rank at the top of the sport. Twenty-three year old Russian Daniil Medvedev lost the first two sets to Nadal and looked to be unceremoniously dismissed by the champion, but he somehow fought back to force a fifth set, thrilling the New York City crowd (a crowd hardly predisposed to cheer for a Russian considering the current political climate) with his ballstriking ability and sheer tenacity, hanging in long rally after long rally with Nadal. Although Medevedev ultimately fell short, he showed that he had the iron will that it takes to be a Grand Slam champion, and he also demonstrated the consistency needed to be world no.1, reaching six consecutive finals.
Denis Shapovalov has not yet had as impressive of results as Tsitsipas or Medvedev, but arguably has a higher ceiling than either. His game combines blistering power on serve (he can reach close to 140 MPH with his first delivery)with sleek groundstrokes including a beautiful one-handed backhand. Shapovalov has struggled with consistency throughout his young career, but in the last third of 2019 he seems to have grown in more ways than one, especially in the Davis Cup, where he lead Canada’s team to its first ever final at that event. In his victory during that event over top 10 ranked Matteo Berretini, Shapovalov demonstrated a newfound poise and maturity, as well as a greater level of patience to his attacking game. If he can maintain these qualities and build on them into 2020, the sky is the limit.
There are others in the ranks of emerging ATP players who may yet surprise on the tour in the new decade. Youngest of all is Felix Auger Aliassime (born in the new millenium), and he may be right behind the trio of Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Shapovalov in reaching the top of the game; he may have pushed for the top 10 had it not been for injury issues. Promising Americans Francis Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz look to be significant factors on the tour, if not reach even greater heights. For years, tennis observers despaired of the lack of top tier young players, fretting about the vacuum that might take hold once Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are gone. All three remain at the top of the game, and hopefully that day will be years in the future. But thanks to the emergence of young tennis stars in 2019, when that day does come the sport will be in good hands.
