At The Precipice: Why Trading Nolan Arenado Could Be Disastrous For the Colorado Rockies.
Colorado sports fans have much to celebrate as the new year begins. Their basketball team, the Denver Nuggets, are in the midst of another strong season, boasting the second best record in the NBA’s Western Conference. The NHL’s Colorado Avalanche look playoff-bound as well, with superstar Nathan MacKinnon leading the way. As for the Denver Broncos, although they missed the playoffs there is hope for the future, as the team finished the season strong after turning over the quarterback position to promising rookie Drew Lock.
The main outlier in all of this are the Colorado Rockies, the state’s MLB franchise. Leading into the 2019 season, the franchise seemed to be in the midst one of the best moments in their history. For the first time since their creation in 1993, they were coming off of back to back postseason appearances. And one of the key reasons why was Nolan Arenado.
At twenty-eight years old, the Rockies’ third baseman is well on his way to being the best player in Colorado’s franchise history. He is a superstar both on offense and defense, leading the National League in home runs three times on the offensive side of the ball, while winning the Gold Glove seven times on defense. Having him on a roster would be the envy of most clubs, but in early 2019 the Rockies made a move that should have ensured he would be the face of their franchise for the duration of his career, signing him to an eight year, $260 million contract extension. Again coming off of two back to back playoff runs, the Rockies entered the 2019 season with high hopes for a third straight postseason bid, if not even more.
Unfortunately, things did not go the way that Colorado or their fans had anticipated. The team got off to a sputtering start, and things only went downhill the further the season went on. Having finished the 2018 season with a 91–71 win loss record, in 2019 that tally was reversed to 71–91. Arenado was not to blame, as he was his usual spectacular self by both traditional and saber metric stats; he batted .315, matched his career high in home runs with 41, and was worth 5.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to sabermetric website Fangraphs, the latter also a career high.
And yet, as the MLB season gave way to the offseason hot stove, it seemed, to the surprise of many, that the Rockes were contemplating trading Arenado- and not one year after signing him to a long term deal, no less. Although he has not been traded yet, various rumors have tied Arenado to, among others, the Texas Rangers, the Atlanta Braves, or even the Los Angeles Dodgers, a rival club with Colorado’s own division.
Despite being a young franchise that has never won a World Series on the field, the Rockies have much going for them as a brand for their fanbase to believe in. Despite missing the playoffs in 2019. the team still ranked sixth among all MLB franchises in attendance. Part of this is due to their ballpark, Coors Field, and how appealing it is as a place to spend a Denver summer afternoon or evening, given its prime location downtown, near restaurants and bars aplenty. But part of it may also be due to the fact that, from early on in their history, the Rockies established themselves as a team willing to reward fans for their loyalty by keeping homegrown stars around.
For much of the 21st century, the face of the Rockies’ franchise was slugging first baseman Todd Helton, who spent his entire career with the franchise thanks to the Rockies signing him to a rich extension. The Rockies similary extended star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, and although they did eventually trade him in 2015, it was only after several injuries that had limited his once seemingly limitless ability on the field. Arenado is different- he is in his prime, plays a more valuable defensive position than Helton and does not have the injury history Tulowitzki did. And it would be hard for fans to believe that the club needs to save money when they were willing to spend on Arenado not one year ago, to say nothing of the fact that they still draw fans so well even when they are losing.
The club could argue that by trading Arenado, they could bring back a haul of prospects that would improve the team in the future. But prospects are never a sure thing, and the team has other trades they could make to improve the farm system. Fans might better understand replenishing the farm by trading a player like Trevor Story, the team’s shortstop, who puts up numbers nearly as good as Arenado, but is set to be a free agent in two years. Colorado’s top prospect Brendan Rodgers, considered one of the baseball’s most promising, could slot in more easily at that position than Arenado’s third base.
Arenado does have an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2021 season, and the fear might be that he could then leave and the club would lose him for nothing. But that would be on him- trading him after signing an extension would be on the franchise alone. Unlike many other players on losing teams in many sports, Arenado had made no comments whatsoever that indicated that he wanted a trade (in fact, his extension contains a no trade clause that he would have to waive for the Rockies to deal him). Few franchises as young as the Rockies have established the track record of loyalty with their fans that they have. Whatever the return that trading Nolan Arenado might bring, it could end up tarnishing their long-term brand in a way that cannot be undone. The franchise has other options that they can take to improve the team in the short and long term, and they would be well advised to explore them thouroughly.
